Now What? - Breaking Down The BCS Chase

Now What? - Breaking Down The BCS Chase

Now What? - Breaking Down The BCS Chase. Is Alabama dead in the national title chase? Not quite yet.


E-mail Pete Fiutak
Follow us ... @ColFootballNews 

Now that Johnny Manziel has matured from Johnny Football into Johnny Heisman (potentially), leading Texas A&M to a stunning win over top-ranked Alabama, is that it for the Southeastern Conference? Did it take a Big 12 team to jump into the SEC to end the league's amazing run?

Don't count out the Crimson Tide quite yet.

Alabama probably won't fall further than No. 4 in the BCS rankings. The Tide could slip to No. 5 behind Georgia, their likely opponent in the SEC Championship Game.

With Louisville losing its first game (to Syracuse) and Oregon State falling to Stanford, Florida State is the only one-loss, non-SEC team which has a prayer of moving up enough to be in the BCS championship debate. However, an FSU win over Florida in its regulars-season finale and an ACC title game victory wouldn't boost the Seminoles above the Tide if Nick Saban's club finishes 12-1 and prevails in the SEC Championship Game.

Come Sunday, the humans will likely rank Oregon No. 1 and Kansas State No. 2, which, for all intents and purposes, will mean that those two will play in the BCS title game if they win out. Notre Dame has to be ranked in the top two in either the Coaches or Harris poll to have any sort of a shot, but that's not going to happen if the Ducks and Wildcats keep winning.

For Alabama, it's not asking for too much for Notre Dame to lose at USC on Nov. 24, and it's not crazy to think that Kansas State could lose to a suddenly resurgent Texas on Dec. 1. Oregon still has tough dates against Stanford (Nov. 17) and at Oregon State (No. 24) to go, not to mention a Pac-12 Championship Game if everything goes according to plan.

Even with this loss to A&M, Alabama will always be on top of the one-loss teams in the BCS pecking order. However, if there are losses by two of the three remaining eligible unbeatens, there's a new team which will quickly enter the national championship discussion.

Hello, Georgia.

If the Bulldogs win out, then they would suddenly take the top spot among all the one-loss teams. That was going to happen with or without Alabama's loss to Texas A&M, but now it appears to be more of a possibility considering the Tide appear to be vulnerable.

From here on, it becomes simple – and style points are irrelevant at this point.

Kansas State
- Win at Baylor
- Beat Texas
- Play for the BCS championship

Oregon
- Beat Stanford
- Win at Oregon State
- Win Pac-12 title game
- Play for the BCS championship

Notre Dame
- Beat Wake Forest
- Win at USC
- Get a loss by either Oregon or Kansas State
- Play for the BCS championship

Alabama
- Beat Western Carolina and Auburn
- Beat Georgia in the SEC title game
- Get losses by two of the top-three teams (Kansas State, Oregon, Notre Dame)
- Play for the BCS championship

Georgia
- Beat Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech
- Beat (presumably) Alabama in the SEC title game
- Get losses by two of the top-three teams (Kansas State, Oregon, Notre Dame)
- Play for the BCS championship

Florida State
- Win at Maryland
- Beat Florida
- Win ACC title game (presumably vs. Miami)
- Get losses from top-three teams (Kansas State, Oregon, Notre Dame)
- Play for the BCS championship

ScoutCFB.com Recommended Stories


Forums


124 Fans online
    Join The Conversation

    Tweets